October 5, 2016

Future of Earth

Future of Earth

The biological and geological future of Earth can be extrapolated based upon the estimated effects of several long-term influences. These include the chemistry at Earth's surface, the rate of cooling of the planet's interior, the gravitational interactions with other objects in the Solar System, and a steady increase in the Sun's luminosity. An uncertain factor in this extrapolation is the ongoing influence of technology introduced by humans, such as climate engineering, which could cause significant changes to the planet. The current Holocene extinction is being caused by technology and the effects may last for up to five million years. In turn, technology may result in the extinction of humanity, leaving the planet to gradually return to a slower evolutionary pace resulting solely from long-term natural processes.

Over time intervals of hundreds of millions of years, random celestial events pose a global risk to the biosphere, which can result in mass extinctions. These include impacts by comets or asteroids with diameters of 5–10 km (3.1–6.2 mi) or more, and the possibility of a massive stellar explosion, called a supernova, within a 100-light-year radius of the Sun, called a Near-Earth supernova. Other large-scale geological events are more predictable. If the long-term effects of global warming are disregarded, Milankovitch theory predicts that the planet will continue to undergo glacial periods at least until the Quaternary glaciation comes to an end. These periods are caused by eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession of the Earth's orbit. As part of the ongoing supercontinent cycle, plate tectonics will probably result in a supercontinent in 250–350 million years. Some time in the next 1.5–4.5 billion years, the axial tilt of the Earth may begin to undergo chaotic variations, with changes in the axial tilt of up to 90°.

During the next four billion years, the luminosity of the Sun will steadily increase, resulting in a rise in the solar radiation reaching the Earth. This will result in a higher rate of weathering of silicate minerals, which will cause a decrease in the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. In about 600 million years from now, the level of CO2 will fall below the level needed to sustain C3 carbon fixation photosynthesis used by trees. Some plants use the C4 carbon fixation method, allowing them to persist at CO2 concentrations as low as 10 parts per million. However, the long-term trend is for plant life to die off altogether. The extinction of plants will be the demise of almost all animal life, since plants are the base of the food chain on Earth.

In about one billion years, the solar luminosity will be 10% higher than at present. This will cause the atmosphere to become a "moist greenhouse", resulting in a runaway evaporation of the oceans. As a likely consequence, plate tectonics will come to an end, and with them the entire carbon cycle. Following this event, in about 2−3 billion years, the planet's magnetic dynamo may cease, causing the magnetosphere to decay and leading to an accelerated loss of volatiles from the outer atmosphere. Four billion years from now, the increase in the Earth's surface temperature will cause a runaway greenhouse effect, heating the surface enough to melt it. By that point, all life on the Earth will be extinct. The most probable fate of the planet is absorption by the Sun in about 7.5 billion years, after the star has entered the red giant phase and expanded to cross the planet's current orbit.

Image Credit: Fsgregs via wikipedia.org
Explanation from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Earth

7 comments:

  1. So let's say lucky us now we won't be there when it happen. The human race if it want to live beyond the earth be eaten by extending red sun. It should drop to oblivion all religions. Put in place a civil code for all. Work all together to put the planet back into sustainable way. Mean less people, and make sure there are all at same rate. A balance yep. Work for the defence of everyone. Then for what we still don't know. But work for what is right. Like management of large object management of evolution of our race into a one race with a lot of different cultures. One currency one way you in dead if not.

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  2. Maybe by that time we could find another planet or two

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  3. There is an end to any beginning, so as EARTH. Adaptability may be a key word to face the change. The context, perhaps, looks into two philosophical ideologies. One, a knowledge base consciousness of the drivers of sustainability and the other related to the drivers of sustainability to be self sustainable. In both the cases, involvement of mankind is essential. So, "HOW?" is the question for further discussion.

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  4. Is the same process in place for Mars? Because of its size has the process time line different? Can we learn anything about Earth from what is happening on Mars?

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  5. We will all have our own space crafts by then its okay!

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  6. Civilização humana em estágio de extinção
    - Professor Negreiros, Deuzimar Menezes
    Considerando que:
    i. estamos entrando em uma nova extinção de vida em massa na Terra, e a atividade humana parece ser em grande parte responsável;

    ii. a vida na Terra será insuportável aos seres humanos até 2100, e insustentável a todos os seres vivos caso não ocorram grandes mudanças comportamentais humanas;

    iii. até 2100 a população mundial vai diminuir drasticamente, podendo chega a metade do que é hoje e as pessoas sobreviventes serão forçadas a voltar à vida como simples caçadores-coletores ou horticultores nos poucos espaços que possam sobrar capaz de conter vida. A civilização humana será extinta caso a natureza não seja reconstituída e preservada urgentemente;

    iv. pouco mais de 10% só da biomassa da terra foi destruída apenas no século XX. E que nos últimos 2.000 anos os seres humanos reduziram esse montante pela metade. E quanto mais biomassa é destruída pelas nossas ações, o planeta Terra tem menos energia armazenada para se auto sustentar, e que ele precisa, pois lhe é vital para manter teias alimentares complexas da Terra e saldos biogeoquímicos para manter-se como planeta Terra;

    v. as grandes maiorias das perdas vêm do desmatamento acelerado pelo advento da agricultura mecanizada em larga escala e a necessidade de alimentar mais e mais uma população consumista em rápido crescimento;

    vi. à medida que o planeta se torna menos hospitaleiro e mais pessoas tem menos opções energéticas disponíveis, o padrão de vida e a própria sobrevivência se tornarão cada vez mais vulneráveis a problemas como secas, epidemias de doenças, a distúrbios sociais, etc;

    vii. se não revertermos drasticamente essa tendência, vamos finalmente chegar a um ponto em que a vida na terra será insustentável e entrará em extinção.

    A única solução preventiva e corretiva é retardarmos e impedirmos urgentemente a destruição da vida vegetal da Terra. Mas as medidas necessárias para interromper essa progressão terão de ser coercitivas e drásticas. Temos efetivamente nos preparado para isso?! Ainda há tempo seguro para ao menos retardarmos isso?‼

    O ser-humano não consegue SER SER-HUMANO em nada!! Ou não faz por onde?!

    “Desmatamento zero ficou como o desenvolvimento sustentável e a camiseta do Che Guevara. Todo mundo usa ou é a favor, sem saber direito o significado.” Carlos Minc

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